Writing/Who's still private in the AI buildout

Who's still private in the AI buildout

The public AI names are picked over. A surprising amount of the buildout is still private, and the IPO window it will come through is visibly open.

September 4, 2026

The listed AI names are covered to death. What gets less attention is how much of the buildout is still private, and how fast that is changing. The window is visibly open: CXMT, China’s biggest DRAM maker, listed on Shanghai’s STAR Market on July 27 after raising $8.6 billion, went up 466% on its first day, and briefly became the most valuable listed company in China. Cerebras made it out in May after years of S-1 limbo, carrying a $10 billion OpenAI deal and around half a billion in 2025 revenue. Everything below is still private.

The GPU clouds

Lambda is the one to watch. It has publicly targeted a second-half 2026 listing, secondaries have traded around a $9 billion valuation, and its latest pre-IPO money reportedly came as convertibles priced at a discount to the eventual IPO, with penalties if the IPO doesn’t happen within a year. That structure only makes sense for a company that intends to list. Crusoe is the opposite case: still funding itself through private bank facilities, no public timeline, and therefore no visibility.

The datacenter builders

Firmus, out of Australia, is the most unusual large name in the group: an Nvidia- and Coatue-backed round at a $5.5 billion valuation, a $10 billion debt package from Blackstone, and a planned ASX listing to raise around $2 billion, all resting on Project Southgate, a liquid-cooled campus in Tasmania designed to eventually house 36,000 Blackwell chips. DayOne, the international spinoff of China’s GDS, sits in the same category further back in the queue.

The chip challengers

Tenstorrent, Jim Keller’s RISC-V AI chip company, last valued around $2.6 billion, with no announced date. d-Matrix, the in-memory inference bet, raised $429 million and talks like an IPO candidate at around $2 billion. Korea has two: Rebellions, which absorbed SK Telecom’s Sapeon, closed a $400 million pre-IPO round at a $2.34 billion valuation, and is now aiming at KOSPI in early 2027 with real inference revenue behind it, and FuriosaAI, which turned down a Meta acquisition to stay independent and keeps raising toward its own listing. Hailo leads the edge-inference pack at a valuation around $1.2 billion with a listing rumored but unscheduled.

Photonics

If interconnect is the next bottleneck, this is the group to know, and none of it is public. Lightmatter is the biggest at $4.4 billion, already shipping its Passage interposer. Celestial AI, around $2.5 billion, is the other heavyweight. Ayar Labs took money from AMD, Intel, and Nvidia at the same time, which suggests the industry expects optical I/O to matter. nEye, backed by Alphabet’s CapitalG, Microsoft’s M12, and Nvidia, is doing optical circuit switches a wafer at a time.

Smaller upstream names

Smaller, but sitting on real chokepoints: ESOL, a Korean EUV mask-inspection company working through a KOSDAQ listing; TankeBlue, a Chinese silicon carbide substrate maker accepted for a STAR IPO; Enflame, a Chinese training-chip maker that cleared its regulatory approval in July and hasn’t traded yet.

Two things that stand out

Two things stand out across the whole list. First, the exits are not in New York. CXMT went to Shanghai, Rebellions and ESOL are going to Seoul, Firmus to Sydney, TankeBlue and Enflame to Shanghai. Most of the IPOs in the AI buildout are landing on exchanges most US accounts cannot trade, which fits a pattern I keep running into: the closer you get to the physical chokepoints, the harder the equity is to reach. Second, the valuations cluster in the single-digit billions. After CXMT’s debut, the market has shown what it will pay for scarce, listed exposure to the buildout. The gap between that and the private valuations is the opportunity, and also the risk.

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